A Curious Statistical Anomaly

Today what caught my eye was an article about the Maldives. It seems they can see the writing on the wall, so to speak, and are going to be saving a percentage of the islands’ tourist income towards buying themselves a new homeland.

The problem is global warming. You see most of the islands are only 1.5 meters (a little less than 5 ft) above sea level. So even a small rise in sea surface levels will have a big impact on these people. It’s a small group of islands and they can’t do anything about global climate change. It’s being caused by the major industrialized nations treating the earth as an infinite resource. What they can do is not wait to the last minute to do something for themselves. They don’t want to be refugees living on the kindness of others when the rising sea takes their homes. So, they, unlike many others, are planing ahead for the future.

This brings up the problem that no one is really talking about: the relocation of many people when the seas rise. A rise in sea level is not just vertical, it is also horizontal. A small rise in the sea level coupled with a storm surge can do much more damage to area that ordinarily wouldn’t be touched by a storm.

Where we live we’re 200 feet above sea level.  We’re also quite a ways inland, but we’re not too far from several rivers. If the sea was to rise about 3 feet vertically, we’d probably find ourselves on an island because of the dips and rises in the land about us. Right now all dry but rising sea levels mean rising river levels and that spill over is going to fill the low lying areas creating new topography for many areas near the ocean or on rivers connected to the ocean.

Not as much of a problem as just a few inches will cause for the people of the Maldives but what will the nations of the earth do for the people who can no longer live in their homes because it’s now underwater or under it most of the time. Here in the US, we haven’t done very well helping people out from the hurricanes that struck New Orleans and parts of Texas. People are still recovering. What if they couldn’t ever go back home? What would have happened then?

Contingency plans may be in the works in many government departments, but I tend to doubt that they are — at least not any plans that have a close relationship to reality either before, during, or after a disaster. I think we’ve seen that clearly just watching the news after natural disasters strike.

We need to plan and to think about what global warming means in the short and long term. Things are going to change and we need to adapt and accept that change is going to happen — how can we make it less stressful and more positive for all — even those facing a rising sea?

A friend sent me a link to this NPR report on “Think You’re Multitasking? Think Again.” I was told at a previous job that it was not humanly possible to multitask, so we were to do one thing at a time. Of course that ignored the fact that we’d be fired if we actually waited to finish one task before beginning or working on another one.

I found it interesting in this report that they say humans don’t multitask, we switch quickly between tasks, focusing first on one thing then another. So, we don’t really multitask. Whoever thought that multitasking was anything other than rapidly switching attention from one task to another? Though I wonder, is folding laundry while watching a movie rapid switching between tasks or true multitasking.  I’d say knitting or spinning while watching a movie is rapidly switching focus because I do need to keep a minimal degree of concentration on the knitting or spinning so I don’t get lost, but it’s almost negligible to someone watching from the outside looking at me doing it.

On the other hand, I’ve noticed that women are much better at switching attention from task to task so that they seem to truly multitask. I often will pick something up and move it to another point when going to do something so that the item gets closer to where it needs to be for a later task. I usually don’t even think about what I’m doing. It happens almost as if I didn’t plan it out at all. On the other hand, my son and husband can’t seem to get the hang of it. If they’re going upstairs for X, and Y needs to go up too, unless you stop them and ask them to take Y with them they don’t even think of it because their focus is on X. Women on the other hand would start out to do X and bring Y with them to save a trip.

Do women switch focus on tasks easier? If we think about stereotypical roles then women are certainly expected to do multiple tasks at the same time: cook a meal, watch the children, supervise homework, answer the phone, and talk to a spouse all at once. Granted it all happens over two hours or so but all the tasks overlap and that’s just picking one part of a day. Think of administrative assistants who answer phones, take notes, type letters/memo/etc, make reservations while talking to someone in the office, and so on. I think that’s a job with built in need for rapidly switching focus on tasks. Short order cooks aren’t the only ones. Waiters do the same: take orders, refresh coffee while moving to another table, clearing tables, watching the tables to see if anything is needed and delivering it while on the way to another table — and so it goes.

So, why do so many researchers feel it necessary to find or prove that multitasking is impossible? Is it because it’s a skill that’s mostly related to women rather than men? Or is it because if they can debunk it in favor of rapidly switching attention between tasks it sounds better? Why did they ever think it was anything more than rapidly switching attention between tasks? I think if you define something that doesn’t exist and no one claimed it did then perhaps you found what was actually happening. I wonder how many people can rapidly switch their attention between tasks and how often or how constantly they can do it without feeling like they’re overwhelmed.

Yo, it’s your friendly neighborhood lynx here, and I have a couple of comments on this topic.  First of all, if what they were saying were totally true, nobody would be able to walk and talk at the same time.  Humans do a lot of things all at the same time, in a way that can’t be called anything but multitasking; and by that, I mean at the exact same time.  But mostly those things are behaviors we’ve done so many times that we don’t have to consciously think of them anymore; some call it muscle memory.  When you’re learning to drive a car, you keep careful track of every little detail.  That’s why beginning drivers are so bad … they’re being swamped with input and they can’t process all the different parts fast enough to make proper decisions when things get hairy.   But after a while, large portions of the driving experience become second nature.  You don’t even notice that you’re doing them anymore (which is why I turn onto the road leading to work, when I’m suppose to be turning the other way towards the grocery store).  Portions of your brain are just imprinted with that function and you do it.   Note that when you get put in a crisis situation, you’re back to being a novice again: too many new things coming too quickly.

Now that doesn’t mean that you’re not limited in just how many things you can do.  Eventually you do get overwhelmed, but as things become second nature, you can do more and more of them without having to stop and think.

Now, from what I can see, what the report is really talking about is cognitive tasks.  These are highly complex things that require large amounts of your attention, especially when you’re new to them.  And what could be more new and complex than being stuck in an MRI machine and given arbitrary commands to perform when you see colors?  Of course the brain is going to stutter and pause.  And yet, aren’t these the same kind of things technicians are trained to do when they’re watching status boards?  If this turns red, do this, if that needle moves here, do this other thing.  But even here, after a while, they’re just twisting knobs and flicking switches, and discussing the big game with their friends.  Even these things can become second nature after a while, it just takes longer.

Anyway, I really think they need to define their terms better and actually get some better controls on what they’re actually trying to study.

This morning I came across this article about Honda’s Wearable Walking Device. To use it you sit in the seat, put your feet in the shoes and turn it on.

They seem to be marketing it toward factory workers who have to crouch, stand, crouch, over and over. It helps support the wearer and reduces stress on the knees. It assists in going up and down stairs, helps with standing in lines, making deliveries. Actually, it seems like for people who use their legs and knees all day it would be a great help to reduce the stress and strain.

I began to think when they mentioned stairs that it would be a real boon to those with arthritis who are using canes and can’t do stairs, not because of their knees don’t bend, but because of the stress on the joints. Maybe this device would give enough assistance to give them back their mobility.

Then I realized how vain most people are and looked at the photo again. Until it gets smaller and less obvious, I just can’t see any personal use happening. So, I guess factory workers will get the benefit of the device before people with medical problems — thought maybe if your life is restricted enough a bit of embarrassment over these leggy things sticking out wouldn’t matter. On the other hand, if they were to come in cool colors and finishes…make them cool and use might take off.

This is just another step in developing exoskeletons to help those people relegated to wheel chairs walk unassisted except by their brains and their exoskeleton. Giving people back mobility is a giant step that is slowly, by tiny steps, becoming a reality.

I really hope I’m wrong about the embarrassment factor for individuals for using this device, but I doubt it. Nonetheless, way to go Honda.

Well, it’s been a wonderful day for me. I stayed up last night until after Obama gave his speech. I thought it was extremely well said — spurring the nation on to the work that must be done over the next several years. McCain’s concession speech was also very well done — I think if the tone and sentiments of that speech had been the same throughout his campaign there might have been a different result last night. But I’m happy with the results we got.

On another note, I haven’t done a knitting post in ages and ages. I’ve got about four projects just sitting in their corners waving their needles and whining piteously when I walk by. I really got to get some time to sit and knit. But since I haven’t I’ve been feeling a bit at loose ends. My wonderful husband reads online comics and this evening had me read Questionable Content, it was a knitting related comic today.

I’m trying to imagine a nine-dimensional hypercardigan — hmmm. If one of those dimensions is time does that mean you could wear it from the moment you cast on or from the moment you think of casting on instead of waiting until it’s finished. It made me giggle anyway so thought I’d share.

I’m also coming down with something. I haven’t got it but I’m on the edge of getting it — cold or flu or something. I’ve got this wimpy cough — sort of a cross between a polite throat cleaing and a hack. It sounds so fake it bugs me but I can’t help doing it. Got a big jug of orange juice and some tea with echinacea. I’m hoping to get over this whatever sooner rather than after it gets worse. This will teach me to skip getting my flu shot

Well, finally the campaigning is over and it has been one of the longest bitterest campaigns I’ve seen in my lifetime. Towards the end, well, lets just say the Republican candidates were getting ridiculously negative. About they only thing they didn’t claim is that Obama’s mother wore army boots and his dog was ugly — otherwise they hit just about every innuendo and near-slanderous remark they could. What were they thinking? Nothing evidently, because the lower they sunk the lower their numbers got and they still didn’t catch a clue.

I voted early this afternoon. I don’t know how it is going to turn out and I’m following the early returns but I figure we won’t know anything until tomorrow sometime. This election has so much riding on it. Our country’s economy is in the toilet. We’re in a war we never should have started. We have no moral high-ground left after all that our current administration has done. Our constitution has been filled with bullet holes from the present administration and Congress couldn’t find a spine if they all chipped in to make one from what is left of their backbones. We need some change and we need some hope that the next leader of the country will work to bring that positive change to our problems. We also need to mend fences with our allies and with the world.

Tomorrow will tell us — who the people of this country chose to make move us forward. The choices were pretty clear — someone with a new vision or someone who wanted to continue with the policies that got us into this mess. I’m hoping for the guy with the funny name because the maverick certainly has never done anything to deserve that nickname.

I came across an interesting article the other day but didn’t have time to fully think about it. It seems that about every 8 minutes a magnetic portal opens between the Sun and the Earth and high-energy particles flow through the connection. Then the connection ends until the next time it cycles comes around.

Scientist thought this was a bunch of codswallop but now the facts are just so overwhelming it it can no longer be denied.    Now it’s time to start trying to figure out what’s happening. This is one of the things that makes science great, at least for me. Facts are facts and no matter how much you might wish to ignore, disbelieve, or refute them — if you are honest you have to accept the fact of the matter, adjust, and move on. That’s what science is all about. Having a theory, testing it, then depending on the facts that are gathered, changing the theory, or accepting it as “good enough for now, until new data comes in” and moving on, using this information as a basis for other theories.

Our world is constantly changing, if not in actuality, at least in our understanding of it. Centuries ago we believed the world was flat, then we believed it was round, and now we’ve seen it from space and know that it’s sort of a bulgy-squashed oval shape, slightly more roundish than not actually. But there! We learn, we grow, and our understanding grows also.

So, what does this mean that the Sun and Earth have been having these flux-transfer events. I don’t really know. But it’s been going on for ages so it must be something we need and have learned to adapt and live with. Why does it happen? Why every 8 minutes? Who knows, but now that scientists are aware of the phenomena, I’m confident that we’ll eventually learn a lot more about these flux transfer events. Personally, I wonder because of the magnetic aspect and because it begins over the equator and moves to the pole if it has anything to do with auroras — either helping to build up the charge or release it — but hey, what do I know. I’m just thinking again and that’s always dangerous.

You know I like these flux transfer events. They’re not related, but it makes me think of all those science fiction flux-thingys — flux capacitors, quantum fluxes, and others.

[Hyperion: Two things.  I wonder if the timing has anything to do with the fact that earth is 8 light-minutes away from the sun?  And second, it’s often joked that in science that first a theory is ridiculed, then its violently opposed, and finally its accepted as trivially obvious.]

Wow, it’s the first of the month and I actually have the picture of this month’s coffee cup ready. For this month, I chose a very fall-ish cup. It’s in shades of brown and you can see that the interior of the cup has the same coloration. There’s a handle that’s more like a twig and a cluster of leaves with acorns. I’ve used it all day and it’s comfortable to hold and drink from.

I actually picked this one up last month at the same time as I spotted my December cup. I’ve been picking the cups up in various places, but November and December are both are from Home Goods. They tend to have some interesting household items for not much cost. At least their coffee cups are cheaper than the same old/same old ones in the grocery store and discount stores.

Mostly, the changing cups of the month gives me a lift and keep my spirits up.

November 1st is also the start of NaNoWriMo or National Novel Writing Month. You sign up and then try to write a novel in a month or 50,000 words. I’ve set myself a goal of between 2,000 or 2,500 words per day. I think I might have to take a few days off because my son is flying down for Thanksgiving, so I’m hoping to get ahead a bit. Today, I managed 2,163 words.

I’ve got several starts on novels in my writing folder. The rules say you can’t work on anything you started and I’ve had this idea in my head for a while. I have a few scattered scenes and today I managed to write up two of them and then it just flowed into the next one. I’m hoping I can keep going. What I’ve promised myself is that each day, I’ll just keep going. I won’t look back. I won’t worry that it isn’t perfect. I won’t even care if I switch point of view because that will all be fixed once the novel is written and I go over it to bring it into shape and closer to a finished novel.

Right now, I’m feeling pretty good about what I’ve done.

To top off the day, I got the dining room table mostly cleared off. [Hyperion: And I helped!] Remember — company for Thanksgiving, sort of need the table for that. It could take me all month to completely clear it off but today was a good start. Also, finished one of my books I’m reviewing for December, I’m hoping to write that review up tomorrow — if I can manage it.

Looks like November is going to be a very busy month for many, many reasons.

Halloween isn’t really my favorite holiday — that honor goes to Christmas (well Christmas spirit, not the commercialized nightmare it has become). But I’m a sucker for candy corn. In fact, it’s about all I can do to keep myself from buying pounds of it each year during the Halloween candy extravaganzas.

Resistance was more difficult than usual this year since all the grocery stores had those scoop things set out so you could fill a plastic bag with as much candy corn as you wanted and it would be weighed on check out. We had to really look to find the small one pound bag you see in the photo. It’s a limit, I can live with — 1 bag per year.

You see it’s not widely known but candy corn is addicting. Really. I bet you don’t know anyone who likes candy corn who can eat just one handful if there is more in the bowl. I mean you could be lying on the floor in a sugary stupor barely able to lift your head without getting a full-on sugar rush and you’d still reach into the bowl for another hand full. It’s insidious. So, the limit is only one bag of the stuff comes into the house. One. Just one. Then no more for a full year.  [Hyperion: It’s actually worse for me.  I’ll eat so much that I’m sick to my stomach, in physical pain, wondering if I’ll be able to get to the bathroom in time, and my hand will still be reaching into the bowl for more.]

We don’t buy candy for Halloween. We live on five acres in the woods down a dirt road. Our neighbor with children goes to parties so there’s no one to give candy out too. This year we’re skipping the Halloween Party since the zines go live at midnight and while I’ve done my part, the web guru is now doing his, so I think we’ll take a break and watch a scary movie and enjoy our candy corn then to sleep to dream of swimming in pools of candy corn.

Tomorrow starts NaNoWriMo, so I’ve got to limber up my fingers and check on the website again since I couldn’t get in earlier and I’ve been too busy since then to check back. November is going to be a month filled with interesting new experiences.