A Curious Statistical Anomaly

This is the 3rd year of the WSFA Small Press Award.

“The award is open to works of imaginative literature (science fiction, fantasy, horror, etc.) published in English for the first time in the previous calendar year. Furthermore, the Small Press Award is limited to works under 17,501 words in length that were published by a small press. The nominees are narrowed down by a panel elected by the membership of WSFA, and these finalists are then judged by the entire membership of WSFA in order to select a winner. Throughout the process, the author and publisher of each story are kept anonymous, and the winning story and its author are announced at Capclave, the WSFA convention held in the D.C. area each October.”

This year, I’m the award administrator. The nomination period is over and the stories have now been stripped of author and publisher information and have been entered into our database. Passwords are being generated for the committee members who will read the stories and select the list of finalists. Once the finalists are chosen, members of WSFA (Washington Science Fiction Association) will be given passwords and allowed to read the finalists and vote for the winner.

The winner will be announced at this year’s Capclave, the club’s annual convention. This year we have 59 valid nominations. We hope that with each year the number of nominations will increase as we manage to inform more of the small presses who are eligible about the contest.

Now, until the finalists are chosen my job is in wait and see mode. But, there are some great stories in this group of nominee and I’m anxious to see which of these 59 stories make the list of finalists.

My husband and I have always had a soft spot in our hearts for March 14 — Pi Day (3.14…). We also get a giggle out of 3:14 if we happen to notice it — Pi o’clock. Okay, we’re definitely a geeky couple and have some strange ways of getting pleasure out of a day.

But it seems we’re not the only ones who enjoy a good math moment in our lives. CNet news reports in Politics and Law National Pi Day? Congress makes it official. The Library of Congress: Thomas has information about the law and a list of the sponsors.

It’s not going to be a national holiday or anything. It just gives the day recognition as being a bit special. So, for you geeks out there, we’ll finally have some recognition for one of our favorite mathematical and physical constants usually represented as being: 3.14159265… You can read about PI at Wikipedia. But basically Pi is

Pi, Greek letter (π), is the symbol for the ratio of the circumference of a circle to its diameter. Pi = 3.1415926535…
From: The Offical Pi Day Website

Or from the Math Forum:

By definition, pi is the ratio of the circumference of a circle to its diameter. Pi is always the same number, no matter which circle you use to compute it.

For the sake of usefulness people often need to approximate pi. For many purposes you can use 3.14159, which is really pretty good, but if you want a better approximation you can use a computer to get it. Here’s pi to many more digits: 3.14159265358979323846.

The area of a circle is pi times the square of the length of the radius, or “pi r squared”: A = pi*r^2

But for me I just enjoy the silliness of having a time of day and a day per year that manages to represent a famous mathematical and physical constant. What about you?

Today it was in the mid-30’s and it snowed a bit. It melted as soon as it touched the ground and later turned to rain.  But, cold and rain means it felt even colder. What makes it weird is that just two days ago on Wednesday the temp was near 80 and I was outside without a sweater or a jacket.

I noticed then that our forsythia bushes are all budded up and a there’s some bright yellow showing. These are the harbingers of spring that I really love — they just flash their brilliant yellow flowers — shouting to all who listen that it is spring.

The azaleas have got some leaves and buds too. The tulips and irises have shot up their leaves. No sign of flowers yet, but the promise is there.

I’m starting to think of gardening and ran about pulling all the gardening catalogs out along with the one or two seed catalogs that I got. I’ve got the pots and the soil to get the seeds started in the house. Once they get growing they’ll be transferred to the garden area.

I love spring; it’s such a time of promise and hope. What about you? What do you look forward to when you recognize the signs of the coming spring and summer months?

All day today I’ve felt sort of off. By they time we had supper ready, I realized I had a headache — took some Tylenol. Two hours later I realized it was a whopping migraine. After taking one of my bazooka pain pills (of which I’m getting really, really low) it seems like the edge is off a bit but I can’t wear my glasses around my neck, everything has a halo, and just this bit of typing is taking for ever. (I’ve got a spell checker that works in forms and just about every other word is coming up with the red underline that means it’s misspelled. Thanks to the geeks of the world, I can still post correctly spelled drivel with a migraine.)

At least I got the proofing I needed to get done today for work before the migraine hit hard. I’d forgotten just how bad and painful these things can be. I had a minor one last month. Tomorrow I see my acupuncturist, she’s really helped with relieving the migraines. Usually, I have the halo and inability to think clearly but I don’t have more than the usual headache level of pain. So, now I’m not used to it like I was when I was on Tamoxifen (after having breast cancer) and had migraines every day for five years.

It’s like falling into a black pit of memories that I would really rather do without. If you’ve never had a migraine and you’re thinking, “it’s only a headache.” Well, take the worst headache you’ve every had in your life then imagine whacking yourself with a hammer or 2×4 and then multiply that by 100 — that’s migraine pain. If you’re really lucky you manage to medicate yourself enough to fall asleep or pass out — either one is a god sent relief. I’m signing off and taking another of my hoarded pain pills (remember doctors are very leary of giving out pain medications — my insurance company says aspirin and Tylenol work just as well for migraines as the Rx’d pain meds — I wish every medical insurance company exec would have a migraine at least once a week for a year and be only allowed to have aspirin or Tylenol — I believe they’d rapidly change their tune.)

Hopefully, the weather will stabilize (I’m pressure sensitive), and my acupuncturist will be able to help, and by tomorrow evening I’ll be able to think straight and talk coherently.

If you’re anything like me you probably wonder how we (meaning the country) got in this situation. Well, today I found a link to a great video by Jonathan Jarvis that simply explains the steps that got us to this national credit crisis.

Now that I’ve watched it several times, I understand the process and how it happened. But, I was always told that if it sounds too good to be true it probably is. Didn’t anyone along the chain of leverage ever think about what would happen if any of the the links in the chain stopped/broke/whatever. In other words this explains the problem — investors got greedy and went for riskier and riskier investments to keep the money coming in. But, and it’s a big but — as you get riskier and riskier the chances of a whopping big crash become almost inevitable — and we’re now faced with the clean up and the holding on until things get better.

It also explains why the first “no strings attached” bail out didn’t work — they went out and just did more of what they’d done to get us in this mess in the first place hoping somehow that this time it would work. At least now it makes a bit of sense as to how it happened.

Greeting! It’s been a while since I showed my whiskers. I just wanted to add to Gayle’s post a couple of thoughts of my own on the nature of the economy. Frankly, I’m convinced that there isn’t one. No, really … it doesn’t exist. It’s vapor … shadows … a consensual hallucination that nobody dares question for fear of things like what we’re now experiencing.

Today Citibank reported that they made a bit of profit. In response, the Dow shot up nearly 400 points. Why? Has the credit crises gone away? Are all the banks lending again? Nope. In point of fact, nothing has really changed at all. So why the rally on Wall Street? Hopes and Dreams. Back last year when oil prices were climbing like a rocket, each day the price would go higher and higher, and the analysts would report that it was because the President of Iran said something, or the Prime Minister of Iraq said something else. Had anything really changed? Did it, in fact, cost one more penny to pump, refine, and transship oil? Nope. So why did the price go up? Fear. That’s right, the entire global economy is run on hopes, fears, and desires, like some magical spell out of Faerie. Companies make huge profits or go into bankruptcy based on what some stockbroker had for lunch and how his stomach feels in the afternoon.

Everyone is so busy looking for reasons why things happen, that they ignore that, most of the time, the reasons come after the event. Nobody really knows why it happened, so they just make something up so that they can make it make sense. But it doesn’t really make any sense. It’s all just a dream that everyone is too afraid to wake up from.

Now that’s not to say that events don’t have some impact, since they obviously do. Gayle’s wonderful link above explains a lot about what went wrong when people’s desire for profit got in the way of good business sense. Greed and avarice obviously still play huge roles in human behavior. But if the markets had been based on something solid and real, then this crisis could never have happened. But the continually rising price of housing served as the engine that powered the whole circuit. But why were housing prices rising? Supply and demand to a degree, but also because that’s just what housing prices do … don’t questions it, just buy buy buy and pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

Anyway, that’s my theory. Take it for what it’s worth, but to me, it makes more sense than an invisible hand benignly guiding the stockmarkets ever upwards.

I’ve known about the problems of wind energy and the current power grid for quite a while.  I found this article on The Energy Challenge — Wind Energy Bumps Into Power Grid Limits in the New York Times (you’ll need to login to read it). To clearly state the problem. In part:

The grid today, according to experts, is a system conceived 100 years ago to let utilities prop each other up, reducing blackouts and sharing power in small regions. It resembles a network of streets, avenues and country roads.

“We need an interstate transmission superhighway system,” said Suedeen G. Kelly, a member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

While the United States today gets barely 1 percent of its electricity from wind turbines, many experts are starting to think that figure could hit 20 percent.

However, to achieve that 20% figure, the United States must upgrade its power grid. Over the past several years, more and more people have come to realize that our national power grid is just not up to snuff. In fact it may not even be up to a sniffle. One of the problems with wind generation is that it isn’t generated evenly throughout the day. Wind changes direction, gets stronger, lighter, and sometimes dies completely. Scientist have been working on teaming the turbines with generators that smooth out the power that is generated. However, while that solves one problem it still doesn’t deal with the fact that you still have to get the power from where it is generated to where it will be used effectively or efficiently — and that means upgrading the grid.

Part of Obama’s recovery plan, and a source of new jobs, was to upgrade the nation’s power grid. Many people complain that it isn’t necessary because we all have power, don’t we? Well, no — not all of the citizens of this country have power. But, yes most do. The problem is that for years people have been ignoring the fact that coal, oil, and carbon based power generation is relying on finite resources — folks, we’re going to run out of these raw materials. We need to switch to greener renewable energy resources — wind, solar, whatever… To do this we need to have the technological grid that can handle what we can throw at it to power our homes, factories, and tools. Upgrading the national power grid is a necessary first step.

Today was work, work, work — getting books entered, reading for reviews, taking notes and getting set for a WSFA (Washington Science Fiction Association) Meeting in DC. For the next six month or so the club is meeting in DC … usually we meet in Virginia for the first Friday of the month, and Maryland for the third Friday.

If you live in the DC, northern VA, Maryland area and love science fiction and fantasy you should check out WSFA. You can view their website at www.wsfa.org. There’s some great people, lots of nice geeky (SF, fantasy, science, technology, and social) discussions after the short business meeting.

WSFA puts on a yearly convention called Capclave. Capclave is usually held in October. This year it will 16-18 October 2009.
Guests of Honor will be Harry Turtledove as Author Guest of Honor and Sheila Williams as Editor Guest of Honor. The convention will be held at the Hilton Washington DC/Rockville, Executive Meeting Center, 1750 Rockville Pike, Rockville, Maryland 20852.

WSFA also presents the WSFA Small Press Award at a short ceremony during the convention. This is the club’s third year giving out this award and the number of nominations are growing each year. The award honors the work of small presses and the short story (under 17,500 words).

Check out the websites to learn more about WSFA and their activities. I enjoy the people, the discussions, and the chance to get involved in the community of fans.

[Besides I needed to do a post tonight and thought I’d talk about a group that I give a lot of my time to. I’m Capclave chairperson for 2010, one of the two webmasters, and the current WSFA Small Press Award Administrator.]
So if you live in the area, come to a meeting and check us out.

I’ve often wonder how people know things or how information spreads from one person to another.  Not so much in an educational classroom sense but those things that you pick up in daily life.  Then, the other day I ran across this article on Evolution and Facebook’s “25 Random Things”. The results of the questionnaire showed that the spread pattern of the “25 Random Things” has the same histogram chart as the spread of an infection disease.

It many ways that’s not surprising. You get the 25 things letter and it asks you to spread it to your friends who are supposed to post 25 things about themselves and forward to their friends and so on. It’s very much like the old chain letters — remember them? Well, even considering that some people don’t post their 25 things or do post and don’t forward — the spread pattern approximate that of a disease.

When you think about it. If I have a cold and then visit several friends, some will get the cold and some won’t. But those that do will visit or otherwise come in contact with other people who will either get the cold or not and so on. The same pattern of spread as an internet meme.

Richard Dawkin’s wrote about The Selfish Gene which a lot of information on memes and how they interact and work. I’ve now bumped that book up on my reading list. Soon, very soon — I’ll know more. Meanwhile, I’ll keep wondering how we pick up and process information.