A Curious Statistical Anomaly

It turns out that some people don’t learn from their mistakes. From the article in The Future of Things:

Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences in Leipzig, Germany have found a genetic factor that affects our ability to learn from our errors. The scientists demonstrated that men carrying the A1 mutation, which reduces the amount of dopamine D2 receptors in the brain, are less successful at learning to avoid mistakes than men who do not carry this genetic mutation. This finding has the potential to improve our understanding of the causes of addictive and compulsive behaviors.

To me this becomes more interesting when you realize that so much of our society is based on learning from our mistakes. So, how would this disposition to not learn from mistakes maintain its 30% of the population? My guess, and remember I’m a normal thinking geek, is that in some situations you want people who don’t learn from their mistakes because in some cases having someone willing to try again IS a survival trait. The press release from the Max Planck Institute for Neurological Research give more technical detail on the A1-allele carriers and its impact on dopamine D2 receptors. There’s also a link to the Science article (but you have to pay to read it unless you otherwise have access — like being a member or subscriber).

What interests me is the impact this has on society. Remember the famous saying:

Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
George Santayana

Well, I’m thinking perhaps we should have our Congress and high office holders tested for this A1-allele condition. Maybe we need to make sure that Congress and all decision making bodies have the 60% who learn from their mistakes and the 30% who don’t — just make sure that when we continue to make a mistake it’s with due deliberation and not because we haven’t learned our lesson.

It’s just a thought but I’ll be mulling this information over for a bit now that I know.

Recently some Norwegian and Swiss biologists have made an amazing discovery. After examining genetic material, they found that the non-bacterial life (eukaryotic life) should be listed in four main groups, not the five that are currently listed in textbooks.

Many people would find this discovery to be proof that science isn’t very good or doesn’t work well. However, this discovery proves that science does work. To a scientist, it’s as important to prove a hypothesis as it is to disprove one. The joy and excitement of scientific inquiry is finding out something you didn’t know before, to learn something new, to expand knowledge, or to broaden our vision of our universe.

To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
From Ulysses by Lord Alfred Tennyson.

Science is the study of fact — not truth or what is politically correct, but fact. If research finds that, with more facts at our disposal, the meaning of those facts now points in a different direction then so be it. It does no good to deny what is. These biologists found by looking beyond what we could previously examine, to examine the genetic material itself that what they thought they knew was incorrect. So, rather than bemoan the error, or try to hide it — they gathered information, collated the data and found that what needed to change was our understanding of what we knew. We now have a new view of non-bacterial life and hopefully this updated information will help biologists in taking a new look at what they thought they knew and revising and re-examining existing research in light of this new information.

The true scientific mindset is to seek, to find, to learn and not yield or bend knowledge away from what IS to what one wants.

I’m unabashedly pro-space research and exploration. I think it’s going to be the only way to save this planet. Many people think, or at least tell me, that all we ever got from NASA and the space program is Tang. Don’t kid yourselves, people. We got lots of advances in technology and medicine — things that we might have eventually developed but not as fast as with the impetus of the space program. Companies don’t tend to spend their own money innovating unless there is an identifiable way of getting that money back, and the space program was that initial market that made it all worth while for dozens of goods and technologies we now take for granted.

The problem now is that the United States doesn’t have a space program anymore. Okay, I can hear you saying, “what are you Klondiking about? We’ve got NASA.” Well, you’re right the US still has NASA but we’re not doing anything new or exciting — we’re doing the same old, same old — and holding the line with the status quo. Astronauts are using their personal weight limits to bring up the technology they need to do some jobs because the space rated equipment is old, big, clunky and often barely up to the job. I don’t believe we would have lost as many probes if we’d been upgrading the technology rather than using the older stuff. But, hey that’s just my opinion as an outsider looking into a program I see going nowhere fast. And while I thought the Shuttle was definitely a “horse designed by a committee”, what do we have to look forward to as its replacement? A multi-stage, expendable rocket, with a return capsule that splashes down. We just lost 40 years of innovation. Of course NASA has a 100% record on new spacecraft following onto the shuttle. They’ve canceled 100% of them. So, forgive me if NASA just doesn’t give me the warm fuzzies anymore.

What I do see and what I think is happening is that private enterprise is going to be pushing us forward into space because they can see the need, the impetus for new technology and growth. Case in point — the photo with this entry — Virgin Galactic has just unveiled its plans for SpaceShip Two. It’s innovators like Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, and others that will take Terrans into space. Of course, the private sector is not without risk. But at least when they’re risking their own money, getting the job done right becomes a higher priority than when the government is taking all the financial risks.

With all the space debris and asteroids coming so close to impacting Earth over the last few years that we’ve been aware of, well, we’ve had some pretty close calls. If we don’t get off this planet someday we just might find ourselves beginning all over again — and that’s only if we’re lucky. If we’re not lucky some other species may become top of the heap for the next go round. There’s evidence enough that Earth has been hit and hit hard at some points in our past — so we needs to get some of our eggs out of this basket (or so the cliché goes).

I’m very excited by these corporate visionaries in the United States and other countries. I just think we could get to some new frontiers sooner with some amazing technology and leaps in science along the way if we once again had a space program with a plan and some vision for the future. Guess, I’ll go wish upon a star.

Today, the barometric pressure is very high — higher than yesterday anyway — so the migraine that’s been off and on for a while is back with a vengeance. So, rather than immediately reach for the painkillers which I’ve been trying to avoid (mainly because they’re so hard to get a Doc to give a prescription for them) , I decided on Tylenol and coffee — doesn’t help much but it takes the edge off and then I can usually deal — provided I don’t have to actually make any important decisions. Someday, when I feel I can do it without whinging and whining, I’ll do a post on living with chronic pain.

Not only do I use coffee medicinally and consciously so, I actually like it. When we lived in Rhode Island, there were lots of coffee shops including the usual Starbucks as well as Ocean Coffee Roasters, The Coffee Exchange, Cafe Zog and a host of others. When you went grocery shopping the coffee aisle was just that; a full aisle with coffees of various types, flavors, and brands, filling nearly both sides of a full aisle. Then we moved to Maryland. Here the coffee aisle of the grocery store was one shelf carrying Nescafe, Maxwell House, and if you were lucky some of the General Foods International Coffees. Then Starbucks opened up in several communities surrounding us — within a year the urge to buy decent beans didn’t mean Internet shopping or a trip into DC or some far off mall with a specialty shop — I could now get decent beans within an hours drive. Life was good again.

Occasionally, I do some searches on coffee just to see what comes up and that’s how I found out about Raven’s Brew‘s Dead Man’s Reach (see the label above). You’ve got to check out their site, even if it’s just for the coffee labels and descriptions. I got some Dead Man’s Reach, just couldn’t resist the picture on the label, it was certainly strongly flavored and it did get the eyes open in the morning. It was smooth too which I hadn’t really expected but enjoyed with sipping or gulping each cup.

I review books and found, while reviewing Cleo Coyle’s coffeehouse murders, that I enjoyed also learning more about coffee, its history and place in society, not to mention the recipes. Not only does Coyle tell a pretty decent mystery in New York’s East Village centered on a coffeehouse and/or its manager, she slips in bits and pieces of coffee trivia and includes recipes at the end of the book.

There’s also lots of books out about the history, economics, and societal impact of coffee on the world. Today I read the Look Inside of Coffee: A Dark History by Antony Wild, Uncommon Grounds: The History of Coffee and How It Transformed Our World by Mark Pendergrast, and The Devil’s Cup: A History of the World According to Coffee by Stewart Lee Allen. They’re now on my wish list.

Also, i ran across this interesting site of coffee links, Bean Scoop Web Reviews. Haven’t had a chance to check all the links out yet but it seems fairly informative.

Now that my coffee is brewed guess I’ll go have a cup.

On one of the lists I read the talk has been about how to read while knitting. The topic is important for me because I read a lot of books because I review them. Reading sort of means that I can’t really do anything else but if I could figure out how to hold the pages open and get them turned when needed, well I could do some mindless stocking knit stitches which is a big part of socks and sweaters and other projects. So far I have a weighted holder and one of those fold-up book holders. The weighted one works best with all types of books. The folding holder only works with hardcovers or trade paperbacks (paperbacks cause it to fold up and fall over).

The other problem is finding good seating. I’ve got a great chair, it’s a chair and a half really, but I feel like a kid cozying up for a good time of reading when I sit there with a cup of tea or coffee and a book. It’s my nest really, with books, knitting, side table, and really good lighting. But I got to wondering today what kind of options there were to reading chairs and found the photos you see with this post.

It seems that there are as many places to sit and read books as there are people to read them. I have fond memories of reading under the covers with a flashlight when I was young. Yes, I know that’s sort of a cliché but then there is a reason some things become clichés. I was read to as a child, so I read to my son. I have many memories of us snuggled up on the couch with a warm blanket, and a wonderful book. He also turned out to be a reader with his own collection of books and reading memories. Guess I wonder if there are better ways to enjoy reading — ways to make it more pleasurable but the more I think about it the more I think that as long as you’re comfortable and the journey in your mind is exciting, then reading itself is a pleasure because you almost don’t notice the surroundings because you’re in that other world — the one within the covers of the book.

Okay, I was reading one of those technology sites today — I’m a geek, so tech news rocks, what can I say? Anyway, there was this article on the Tata Nano. It’s made by Tata Motors and will be sold in India. It seats 5 and is expected to get 54 US miles per gallon.

Sounds great and the price is under $3,000. Why don’t we have a car like that in the United States? If you go to the article there’s a link to a video of the unveiling (watch with sound OFF — it’s horrible and the video is shaky) — the car is really cute — but that’s beside the point.

My point is that I’ve been reading about these new cars in Europe that are coming to the US. They all get tremendous mileage compared to American made cars (here I’m talking American brand of cars not foreign cars made in America (Honda)). So, why can’t America make a car that gets 54 miles per gallon and doesn’t cost the same as 4 years tuition for a college education? We’re supposed to be the best and yet we continue to put out cars as if there isn’t an oil crisis. We built bigger and with more bells and whistles that we don’t need, as if the environment isn’t also having a crisis. What’s wrong with us?

I’m talking not just about the industry, but you and me. They’re never going to change if we don’t stand up and say “this has got to stop, make me an ecologically sound car that gets 80 miles per gallon, that can take me and my family to school, work, and on errands.” The government recently changed the rules and now US cars have to have meet 35 miles per gallon (currently 27.5 mpg) averaged over their fleet of cars by the year 2020. What that means is that car manufacturers only have to drop their most gas guzzling model or two and hey we meet the standard, business as usual. Whoopee for the company and the heck with the consumer and the environment. And they don’t even have to do it for another 18 years.

Someone once told me that American’s don’t want hybrids or fuel efficient cars. I said, “But I know that Honda has waiting lists for their hybrids.” The response: “See, no one wants one.” “How can that be, if there’s a waiting list to get one. Obviously people are willing to wait their turn to get one.” But says he, “American’s don’t want them or there’d be more on the road.” I hope you understand that logic because I surely didn’t and still don’t. I’ve known people who waited for almost a year for their shot at a hybrid and they love the ones they have. I’d certainly get one if I could afford one, but my old Honda (over 10 years old) is still running strong and most of the time gives me better mileage than that new ruling from Congress.

It seems to me that as long as we as taxpayers, consumers, and citizens are willing to sit back and let corporations rule us, we’re never going to get out from under. I believe that if Tata’s Nano could be sold in the US — it would sell like hotcakes. Who wouldn’t want a car for under 3K that got 54 mpg. Oh, I forgot — it might not make it in an accident with those big behemoth gas guzzlers. Because, I also know that people are afraid that if they get a smaller, lighter car that gets good mileage, they might not be as safe as in the big behemoth that would probably hit them since they couldn’t see them since they’d be so much smaller in comparison. But, maybe, if we all drove the smaller more ecological and economical cars that safety factor would cancel out. [NOTE: Found a site with some safety information on the Nano — Jan 10.]

So, I ask why can’t America come up with a decent low prices, high mileage car? Is there any other reason other than they don’t want to — because the rest of the world seems to be able to do it.

We were out running errands today and passed one of the many roadside shrines that people put up to commemorate a loved one lost in an accident — usually involving a car. This one has been gathering stuffed animals nailed to the tree, lots of plastic flowers and ribbons, candles in holders, a large cross and several smaller ones. I imagine that leaving mementos must somehow make the family and friends feel better but like many I wonder about these growing tributes to death, the danger to those who stop to add to the clutter, and the eyesore they are to others driving by on these roads.

Searching the internet, I found that this custom is a cultural one in the southwest. I found a site called Descansos that talks about that and has some photos. The photos on this site show small memorials that do not overpower the area. If all these roadside shrines were as simple in line and function, I guess it probably wouldn’t become such an issue. A quick Google search showed that many states have passed legislation to clear up these roadside shrines as dangerous and in some cases unsightly. The New York Times had an article, “As Roadside Memorials Multiply, a Second Look“, in its February 6, 2006 edition.

In many ways, I can understand the family member wanting to commemorate the death of loved one. My brother was killed many years ago in a tragic car accident, leaving a wife and two children, mother, sister, aunts, uncles, friends, and acquaintances — bereft and tearful. But, not once did any of us think to put a shrine on the site of the accident. For me, that would be celebrating his death not the life he lived. To me the best way to remember the lost family member would be to remember their lives and share memories with those who knew him or who might have liked him if he’d lived to met them.

It just struck me today, that I have no idea why people do this. Maybe it’s a lack in my understanding because to me it’s got the thing backwards keeping the death clutched to their heart rather than celebrating the life they had and the memories they shared. But that’s just me — rolling ideas around in my heart and head.

For a long time now, my husband and I have joked about the chaotic nature of the non-traffic jam. You know the ones where you crawl along on the interstate or highway for mile after mile and then, at last, get to the head of the jam and there’s nothing there.  So you just sail on at the posted speed wondering what just happened. We’ve said it’s chaos in action or a curious statistical anomaly.

Well, now mathematicians have solved the problem from this article:

Mathematicians from the University of Exeter have solved the mystery of traffic jams by developing a model to show how major delays occur on our roads, with no apparent cause. Many traffic jams leave drivers baffled as they finally reach the end of a tail-back to find no visible cause for their delay.

It seems Paul and I weren’t that far off. The mathematicians developed a model that shows that when one event happens — say a truck unexpectedly changing lanes — the cars nearest slow down, the cars behind slow down even more, and this begins a backward wave that slows all traffic, causing the jam that can stretch for miles but having no apparent cause when any car reaches the beginning of the slow down.

Granted we don’t have mathematical degrees but since I’ve independently come up with this explanation for the phenomena — I’m really glad to hear that they’ve come up with a model for this behavior. I always find it interesting that seemingly random and unexplainable behavior has not only an explanation, but a equation or group of equations that can cause the same behavior in controlled conditions. This is the first step in understanding and hopefully coming up with ideas for handling this phenomena.

Of course, we’ve learned to handle the slow downs and increased time on the road by listening to books on tape. It’s the best way to travel in a car. It keeps the mind occupied, gives us a chance to read a book we might otherwise not get to, and you can turn it off and talk about the section you just heard or discuss a tangential topic the book raised. So far we’ve listened to The Life of Pi and the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy (read by the author). It’s made the hours on the road (each trip was 8 hours one way) much more enjoyable as quality together time.