A Curious Statistical Anomaly

As we approach Halloween, thoughts often turn to those things that go bump in the night. Well, maybe not you but I tend to think of such things and evidently so do many other people. Today there was an article in CIO online called Paranormal Investigations and Technology: Where Ghosts and Gadgets Meet. The reporter talked with Auerbach and Wilson who have been investigating strange phenomena for quite a while and they discuss the tools of the trade and some of their experiences. The most useful tools: coffee (for those late night stakeouts) and a Digital SLR to document. The article was interesting and handled without prejudiced.

In another article I read today, it was found in an AP poll and reported in CNN’s online living section that 1/3 of people polled believe in ghosts. On CNN’s main page there a poll asking if you believe in ghosts and there the figure is 46% believe in ghosts.

Do I believe? My SO says while he doesn’t believe, that’s not the same thing as not believing. He’s withholding opinion, but siding on the skeptical side for now. As for me, I really don’t know. I’ve had some really strange things happen to me in my life and whether they’re from a bit of undigested beef or actual paranormal occurrences — I really don’t know. Perhaps, I should say that when I was getting my degree in psychology I did a lot of reading in paranormal research and actually did a small research project of my own for a class paper. What I do know is that researchers into the paranormal don’t get a lot of respect from their colleagues. And in fact, even those investigators who think they are fair and just asking for such research to meet acceptable standards — tend not to notice that they are in actuality raising the bar for paranormal research. I’ve seen methodologies for clinical trials, that I think are totally unacceptable, be thought to be fine, while methodologies that are far stricter in requiring double blinds are thought to be way too loose to be acceptable. There seems to be a double standard; one for normal science and another stricter (and usually unreachable) standard for paranormal research.

Nevertheless, I’ll withhold judgment since I need to see more evidence than what passes for prime time coverage or Hollywood super FX thriller. I do believe that there’s more to it than simply wishful thinking but what that is and how it manifests as ghosts, ESP, or other phenomena — that I don’t know. What do you believe?

It started raining last night — in fits and starts. All day today there’d be misty rain followed by overcast skies and then maybe more rain. Maryland was in a drought — 34 days without rain, with temperatures most days in the mid-70s to high 80s. I’m enjoying the sound and the smell of rain. It’s very pleasant to have not just rain, but the slow drippy kind that soaks into the soil and down through to wherever the wetness goes to help wells and water tables.

On the other hand, Southern California is having another day of fires sweeping through the canyons and destroying homes as well as trees, brush, and the creatures that live hidden from view. The winds are driving the fires — the news today said hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated from the burning areas. I feel almost guilty enjoying the rainy end to our drought  when these people are losing their homes. Especially since people I know live very near those areas. None have had to suffer from anything more that soot and smoke, but they’re still living with the threat, while I sit back drinking coffee and enjoying the rain.

To make matter worse, I heard that some of the more recent fires are arson. You really have to wonder about the thought processes that someone has to have gone through to decide that it’s a good idea setting fires in an area that’s already in flames, with firefighters stretched thin and exhausted. Maybe they don’t think at all. Shouldn’t arsonists all just line up to see the beautiful display of fire that nature is displaying rather than setting fires of their own? I can’t come up with a motivation for this behavior — nope, can’t think why a sentient being would do such a thing — maybe they aren’t sentient — they just look the part.

I have a cell phone — well, in this day and age nearly everyone does but mine is a basic model — no camera, no Internet access, just your stripped down model. What it does seem to have is a very accurate Important Event Detector (IED). For those of you who haven’t realized that this piece of technology is built-in to every piece of equipment you own — well, you’ve been lucky. An IED is what makes the cell phone, laptop, PDA, calculator, whatever misbehave just when you need it most. So, if you charged your cell phone just last night, took it off the charger this morning and then need to make an emergency phone call because you’re stuck in traffic — well the IED snaps into action and your cell phone will be dead and needing a charge. Have an important paper due at work and figure you’ll print it out when you get there — IED strikes again — the laptop will be dead or the wireless network on the fritz, or the file will suddenly corrupt and you’re dead in the water. It has taken me years of tracking these small incidents but I’ve finally figured out that the IED exists.

I use to get really annoyed at authors of books that have their protagonist’s cell phones, tasers, etc., fail  just when they needed them the most. I figured this was just a clumsy plot device. But now, I can see that these authors knew something I either didn’t know, or simply didn’t want to admit. Yes, it’s the IED that gets us, and all these amateur detectives, into so much trouble.

Now if we could only find out who makes and it and what it’s true purpose is….