A Curious Statistical Anomaly

I’ve often wonder how people know things or how information spreads from one person to another.  Not so much in an educational classroom sense but those things that you pick up in daily life.  Then, the other day I ran across this article on Evolution and Facebook’s “25 Random Things”. The results of the questionnaire showed that the spread pattern of the “25 Random Things” has the same histogram chart as the spread of an infection disease.

It many ways that’s not surprising. You get the 25 things letter and it asks you to spread it to your friends who are supposed to post 25 things about themselves and forward to their friends and so on. It’s very much like the old chain letters — remember them? Well, even considering that some people don’t post their 25 things or do post and don’t forward — the spread pattern approximate that of a disease.

When you think about it. If I have a cold and then visit several friends, some will get the cold and some won’t. But those that do will visit or otherwise come in contact with other people who will either get the cold or not and so on. The same pattern of spread as an internet meme.

Richard Dawkin’s wrote about The Selfish Gene which a lot of information on memes and how they interact and work. I’ve now bumped that book up on my reading list. Soon, very soon — I’ll know more. Meanwhile, I’ll keep wondering how we pick up and process information.

Sometimes when I read the results of a new scientific study, such as this one on “Loss of Height Linked to Breathlessness in the Elderly“, I wonder why they didn’t know that already. One researcher said:

“The results of the study were far more profound that we expected, given the relatively small number of subjects involved,” Tan said. “We postulate that this loss of height results in reduced lung volume which then results in shortness of breath.”

I’ve put Da Vinci’s Vitruvian Man as the image for this post. His sketch shows that a person’s reach from side to side is approximately the same as that person’s height. As you grow older the bones in the spine often compress or lose mass and the height of a person decreases. The study found that as the ratio of width of arms (reach) to height increased, that the elderly person was losing height and often that loss of height was related to shortness of breath.

Let’s think about that a second. I’ve still got all my organs but I’ve got less height so those same organs are now compressed into less space — which means my lungs have less space to expand. Wouldn’t the logical deduction, without a study, be that as the elderly person loses height they’d lose lung capacity? I just don’t understand the surprise at the findings.

It seems to me a forest/tree problem (i.e. can’t see the forest for the trees) or you look so much as the individual items that you lose sight of the big picture.

Was the research necessary? In my opinion it probably was since they were so surprised by the outcome. It’s one of those cases where if they had stopped to think about it, they’d have known what the results would be without actually having to run a study. But, in the scientific community if you don’t run a study and get quantified/verified/certified/reproducible results then all you have is intuition, folk lore, or theory. A theory that’s unproven isn’t really accepted. So, while you’d think one could figure it out intuitively, it is necessary to run a study to verify the belief that’s this is what’s happening.

It seems that a lot of things lately look like simple concepts being verified that you’d think would have been, by now, accepted facts. If all your organs now have to fit in less space — some of them are going to have problems working correctly. Now that it’s been tested maybe we can move on to how to help those who have lost height to adapt or alleviate the symptoms that loss of height has caused.

I have good days and so-so days and bad days. Today started as a good day so I rushed about doing everything I’d let slide over the past week. I got caught up on a lot of work tasks, did some housework, and then…ran out of steam.

I should of known it was too good to be true when the headache didn’t go away when I got up until after the coffee. (I’m limiting myself to only one cup a day.)

I moved slower and slower as the day wore on and when Hyperion got home… I’d been sitting and reading and I could barely move when I went to stand up.

Poor me. Whine and cheese. (long list of whines here). But I’m still so much better than I was that I’m sure this is just a minor set back (fingers crossed and quick wish).

The problem with fibromyalgia is that it changes. Some days I’m normal and some I feel like I’m a billion years old. Other days, I’m just a bit off. I’ve had a lot of off days lately but managed to plow through and today is just one of those muddle days where the whole range shows up in one day.

Better tomorrow. The sun will come out and it will be a glorious day even if it rains, storms, four-letter-words, or is perfect. Every day is a joy.

Occasionally, or as often as I can find a way to fit it in, knit happens. I finished the other pair of socks I was working on, except for sewing in the ends and writing up the directions. They actually came out pretty nice — more on them later in another post.

So, I bought some Red Heart Heart & Sole with Aloe. It’s a self-stripping yarn. Fiber content is 70% Superwash Wool and 30% Nylon. It feels pretty nice — smooth and easy to knit with. Haven’t had much problem with splitting. But I’m a bit disappointed in that the strips have these blobs of off color mixed in so the entire sock looks like a stripped sock that’s been washed a bazillion times. So, it is going to have that lived in look right from the start. You can see what I mean about the color smears from the photo.

I’m just using the standard sock pattern, nothing fancy. Actually, this is what I do so I don’t need a pattern. Guess I’ve finally made enough socks I don’t use a pattern when I do the plain vanilla ones like this. I’ve been in a bit of a brain fog lately so I needed something to do when I felt really off — something I could focus on that (hopefully) wouldn’t need a lot of concentration and would make me feel like I’d at least done something with my time other than stand around trying to figure out what I was supposed to do now that I found myself standing in this room instead of that one.

Things are looking up. I actually feel my brain rebooting and coming back on line. The pressure dropped and the headache/migraine eased off and I got my Celebrex Rx refilled. The joints still ache, especially the knees and hips but my fingers are fine and my arms and shoulders are lots better. Once it gets back in my system I should be nearly back to normal.

I’ve got a lot of irons in the fire and once the brain is back on line and running nearly optimally, I’ve got to get cracking on them.

I found out what the reddish mystery bird was in my Bird post. Today RefDesk had an article on Birds Shifting North During the Winter. The RefDesk had a picture of the Purple Finch along with a photo and it looks like one of our mystery birds — so I’m calling it a purple finch from now on.

Sometimes, serendipity just bring the answers to the questions of life — the trick is to recognize them.

There are some days that, no matter what you do — meditation, yoga, sitting quietly in the dark — it doesn’t help. The pounding just goes on and on. The least it could do is have a nice beat that is easy to dance to or sing counterpoint to. Guess that’s too much to ask of a migraine — at least it puts on a good light show at times.

Maybe tomorrow I’ll actually, do a post. Provided I can think.

There seems to be a lot of conflicting information being published about coffee and its effect on us. Of course that’s not new; some people have always said it’s bad for you to drink coffee and some have said it’s good. I remember as a child it was forbidden to have coffee unless, of course, it was one part coffee to about 6 parts milk. But now science has put its oar in the water and the boat is spinning…

First there’s the good.

Last April (2 April 2008), BBC News ran this article, Daily Caffeine ‘protects brain’. This study basically showed that caffeine helped protect the brain’s blood/brain barrier from decaying. Saying among other things:

The University of North Dakota study used the equivalent to just one daily cup of coffee in their experiments on rabbits.

After 12 weeks of a high-cholesterol diet, the blood brain barrier in those given caffeine was far more intact than in those given no caffeine.

Caffeine is a safe and readily available drug and its ability to stabilise the blood brain barrier means it could have an important part to play in therapies against neurological disorders.

Dr Jonathan Geiger, University of North Dakota

All well and good. Just one cup a day and maybe, just maybe, I’ll be looking at having full mental capacity into my golden years.

Then there was more good news.

On January 16th, 2009 there was a report of a new study in theage.com.au, Coffee reduces Alzheimer’s risk: study.

This was a longitudinal study, meaning it took a long time to gather the data — usually having quite a bit of time between the first set of interviews and the second (in this case about twenty years). They interviewed 1,409 people in Finland. The people were first interviewed when they were in their 50s about their coffee-drinking habits then their memory functions were tested. These same people were re-interviewed when they were between 65 and 79. Again they were asked about their coffee drinking habits and their memory functions tested. What they found was that:

A total of 61 people had by then developed dementia, 48 of whom had Alzheimer’s, the researchers said.

The overall results of the study from the lead research:

“Middle-aged people who drank between three and five cups of coffee a day lowered their risk of developing dementia and Alzheimer’s disease by between 60 and 65 per cent later in life,” said lead researcher on the project, Miia Kivipelto, a professor at the University of Kuopio in Finland and at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm

“There are perhaps one or two other studies that have shown that coffee can improve some memory functions (but) this is the first study directed at dementia and Alzheimer’s (and) in which the subjects are followed for such a long time,”

Note the number of cups of coffee listed — “between three and five cups … a day”. Because here comes the bad…

The Telegraph.co.uk on 13 January 2009 published Three Cups of Brewed coffee a day ‘triples risk of hallucinations’. Researchers looked at the

[Researchers examined the] caffeine intake of about 200 students, some of whom had experienced seeing things that were not there, hearing voices or sensing the presence of the dead. The volunteers were questioned about their caffeine intake from products including coffee, tea, energy drinks, chocolate bars and caffeine tablets.

So what did they find out from this study. Well:

Researchers found that “high caffeine users”, those who had more than the equivalent of seven cups of instant coffee a day, were three times more likely to have had hallucinations than those who had less than the equivalent of one cup.

Those who have three cups of brewed coffee a day could be at the same risk, they warn, because of the drink’s higher caffeine content.

On average the volunteers had the equivalent of three cups of instant coffee a day, which could still cause an increased risk, according to the study.

Remember, three to five cups a day could possible help protect you from Alzheimer’s. On the other hand, three cups of coffee or more in a day could cause you to hallucinate.

Oh, joy. Conflicting reports. See the problem with science is also what is good about it. Depending on what hypothesis you are testing and what groups you study, you will find different results. The point is that while the good and the bad here are in conflict when you’re trying to decide whether coffee is good for you or not, you can’t make an educated decision based on three pieces of data. You also have to take into consideration your own health. Do you have high-blood pressure? Caffeine can cause it to be elevated. Has your doctor told you to avoid coffee? Why? Have you talked with the doctor about your lifestyle and health history? Are you at risk for Alzheimer’s?

The problem is that people pretty much do what they want no matter what the issue is about. If you want to drink coffee you’re going to like the protection against Alzheimer’s reports and ignore the report on increased hallucinations even if the music in your head is bothering your neighbors. Humans tend to find the facts that backup what we want to do and then feel all happy and righteous about our decisions.

Me. Well, I’ve reduced my coffee intake to no more than two cups a day. By the way did you notice that not one of the studies included a definition of “cup of coffee” in their reports. Perhaps they did in the actual paper presented to their respective scientific conferences but for the lay person well it’s sort of up in the air. My cups are pretty big so reducing my intake to two cups might be the equivalent of five cups in those pretty delicate china cups with saucers. But since I used to have four or five of these big mugs/cups of coffee a day my reduction is pretty drastic. Besides the only times I’ve ever hallucinated has been when I was ill with very high fevers — I called them fever dreams. So, I’ll take my chances with my two mugs a day until the next batch of reports come out and then I may rethink depending on what the results show.

What will you do?

[Hyperion here] This is really interesting … unless, of course, she’s only hallucinating that she read these reports.

Today, I was leafing through a magazine and imagine my surprise to see that a Tylenol ad was actually informative and helpful. Not that I’m saying such ads are never either of these. But, usually they just say something on the order of “if you’re in pain or ill use our product”.

So, what was different? This time the ad said “Increasing the font size on your computer screen can help prevent eye strain and headaches”. Then it listed how to increase the font size depending on whether you used a PC or a MAC.

PC — CTRL, SHIFT, +

Mac– COMMAND, SHIFT, +

Wow, advice on alleviating the pain by eliminating the problem — squinting and straining the eyes. Then suggesting you take their product only for pain you can’t avoid.

I think I like this new advertising campaign. I’m far more likely to remember a company that gives helpful advice that might reduce you reliance on their product and use it when necessary.

I guess my truth in advertising would be that I do use Tylenol extra-strength when I can’t take the pain anymore. It doesn’t help much, but sometimes it takes the edge off enough so I can keep on keeping on without whining. But like any medication — over-the-counter or not — it’s much better to eliminate what’s causing the problem then covering up the symptoms with medication.

So, if you think your headaches are from eye strain, make the font size larger. If it helps then maybe it’s time to get your eyes tested.

Well, it’s been a wonderful day for me. I stayed up last night until after Obama gave his speech. I thought it was extremely well said — spurring the nation on to the work that must be done over the next several years. McCain’s concession speech was also very well done — I think if the tone and sentiments of that speech had been the same throughout his campaign there might have been a different result last night. But I’m happy with the results we got.

On another note, I haven’t done a knitting post in ages and ages. I’ve got about four projects just sitting in their corners waving their needles and whining piteously when I walk by. I really got to get some time to sit and knit. But since I haven’t I’ve been feeling a bit at loose ends. My wonderful husband reads online comics and this evening had me read Questionable Content, it was a knitting related comic today.

I’m trying to imagine a nine-dimensional hypercardigan — hmmm. If one of those dimensions is time does that mean you could wear it from the moment you cast on or from the moment you think of casting on instead of waiting until it’s finished. It made me giggle anyway so thought I’d share.

I’m also coming down with something. I haven’t got it but I’m on the edge of getting it — cold or flu or something. I’ve got this wimpy cough — sort of a cross between a polite throat cleaing and a hack. It sounds so fake it bugs me but I can’t help doing it. Got a big jug of orange juice and some tea with echinacea. I’m hoping to get over this whatever sooner rather than after it gets worse. This will teach me to skip getting my flu shot