A Curious Statistical Anomaly

Edgar Allan Poe was born January 19, 1809. He was a writer, poet, and critic. He wrote mysteries, horror, and just plain weird stories. His poetry was often sad and/or depressing but mostly unforgettable. Classics Illustrated #4: The Raven & Other Poems has a good selection of his poetry illustrated by Gahan Wilson.

I first read many of his short stories in a collection that my grandfather let me read when I was quite young. Some of the stories kept me up at night with a flashlight for company and to keep the shadows at bay. Many people know of Poe’s writing even if they haven’t read it themselves. I doubt there are many people in the English speaking world who don’t connect raven’s with the word, “Nevermore”.

In Baltimore, there has been a tradition that on Poe’s birthday someone in the dead of night leaves a rose and a bottle of cognac on his grave. This year the watchers who keep a vigil waiting for this person to show up reported that the tribute to Poe was not left on his grave. A tradition of over sixty years maybe at an end. There have been two visitors to the grave. The first left a note and said he couldn’t do it anymore and someone else took up the mantle. Was the mysterious visitor ill? Has this person now gone to talk with Poe in person beyond the veil? Who knows. The watchers who wait for this yearly visitor will keep their vigil for another two years before they give up hope.

Whether this mysterious visitor once again visits Poe’s grave to leave a tribute of a rose and a bottle of cognac, people will go on reading Poe’s works, and enjoying the genres that he helped to develop. There may not be any more tributes left at his graveside but his legacy to literature lives on with readers everywhere.

Today has been a real challenge. Most of last week I kept having lower back pain on top of the usual fibromyalgia issues. It was constant pain with, now and then, a bad twinge. Finally, today I just couldn’t take it anymore and took a muscle relaxer.

I figured I’d been thinking it was kidneys and drinking water like crazy but it still hurt and every bend and lift was…let’s just say not fun. So, the muscle relaxer. It helped. So, I’m guessing it was the muscles in my lower back all the time and while I was trying to take it easy lifting anything I was probably just making it worse ignoring it. I’m a bit floaty but the pain is now in that “over there” place. You know — you’re in pain and you know it but it’s like one step to the side of you so while it’s here, it’s over there and ignorable.

Meanwhile, we’ve got all the ornaments off the tree and packed. We’ve managed to get all the branches smooched together. Next we need to take it apart and wrap it up for storage. That’s the sticky point with my back as it is. Guess that waits a bit until either I feel better or Hyperion tackles it on his own.

I really hate it when the spoon just get all used up while I still have a full TO DO list and lots of day left over. Meanwhile, I’m doing mindless knitting on my sock — the stocking knit bit in the foot so I’ve got 3 more inches before I have to think about the heel.

I really need many more spoons in my life. So much time so little energy and so few hours not in pain. Okay, I’m whinging again but darn it sometimes you just have to get it out so you can move on.

Okay, this has nothing to do with muscle pain, but a lot to do with mental anguish. Gayle and I watched two sci-fi movies today. Supernova and The Black Hole. Neither are the “classic” by that name, but newer and if anything, worse. Worse because you’d think after all this time movies could actually afford to have a science adviser that could tell them they’re making complete idiots of themselves. Actually, maybe they do have advisers. Just because you have one doesn’t mean you have to listen to them. And in these cases, they most certainly didn’t. Let’s take a second to hit the highlights on the lack of any conformity to high school level physics knowledge.

First in Supernova we have our sun about to go supernova. Okay, we can stop right there. Our sun would need to be about half again its current mass at the very least, so the very premise is already impossible. But wait, there’s more. Why is it going supernova? Because a planetoid crashed into it. Never mind the fact that you could dump the rest of the solar system (which, including ALL the planets, is less than 0.2% of the mass of the sun) into it without causing much more than a ripple. But no, this single planetoid has “punched a hole” in the sun and caused it to become unstable. The instability causes Coronal Mass Ejections which, for some unexplained reason, seem to be aimed at the Earth time and time again. But wait, there’s more. Despite the fact that CME’s are huge energetic clouds of gas larger than the Earth itself, in the movie, they arrive as swarms of little fireballs that rain down and blow up individual buildings. UGH! And the solution to the problem of the impending supernova requires a suspension of disbelieve far above the capacity of this viewer. In most ways, the biggest problems with this movie revolve around the fact that the writers were incapable of understanding anything about the scope of what they were trying to meddle with.  The sun is just too big to fiddle with, and CMEs are just to big and diffuse to cause any problems on less than a hemispheric scale.

Next up is The Black Hole, in which an “accident” with a particle collider causes a black hole to form in St. Louis. Obviously based of the nonsensical ravings against the Large Hadron Collider, this movie quickly goes from the absurd to the disparagingly laughable. Quick lecture in two points. First: The energies produced by the Large Hadron Collider are of a lesser order of magnitude  then the energetic collisions taking place every second in our upper atmosphere between air molecules and cosmic rays. If those collisions haven’t created a black hole in the last few billion years, the LHC isn’t going to be any worry. Second: Assuming a black hole was formed, it would be a microscopic black hole which would flash out of existence in a few microseconds due to Hawking Radiation. Despite what you may have learned about black holes, they do actually emit energy due to quantum mechanical effects at the event horizon. And the smallerl the hole, the faster they evaporate.

So in the movie, we have an impossible event, creating something that wouldn’t actually be of any danger at all.  Furthermore, any black hole that did form, would be subject to gravity like anything else. And since gravity is a universally attractive force, the black hole would fall into the earth (the larger gravity field) and make its way to the core in no time at all before being snuffed by the aforesaid laws of physics. But that would make a short and pointless movie. So instead we get a full scale black hole, hovering over the ground, and eating St. Louis. Interestingly enough, the black hole appears to think (like Khan in Star Trek 2) in two dimensions. Instead of gobbling everything up all around it, it swirls like water going to down the kitchen sink, slowly expanding outwards, but letting helicopters fly over it with impunity. Now we get the part that REALLY doesn’t make any sense. If we ignore physics (and boy do we ever), there’s not much one can do to stop a black hole that’s on the rampage. So we get the addition of an alien entity that uses the black hole as a transit system from planet to planet, and feeds it by sucking in electricity. And “all” we have to do to save the Earth is kick the alien back through the black hole and all will be well again. Gayle and I yelled the solution at the TV about 15 minutes in when the alien first started moving around. Pity it took until 15 minutes from the end for the protagonist to think of it as well.

Okay, that’s enough ranting for now. But be warned, there are two more movies in the collection, and as soon as my craw can take it, we’ll dive into those stinkers as well. When? You’ll be the second to know.

Woke up to find the house surrounded in fog.  At first I didn’t notice because the rain was pattering on the sky light and it was rather dark.  Once I got up and looked out there was fog, the thin grey blanket type over, around, and cloaking everything.  It made for the kind of grey, lazy day where you just spend your time catching up on all the little chores you’ve been meaning to do.

Picked up the kitchen and cleaned the counters and stove top.  Then started on the big job.  Taking down the Christmas tree.  Wish we could leave it alone since my back has been quirky for days now.  But, it’s not the decorating statement I want to make.  The hold up was having to replace the ornament boxes which we’ve had for years and were more tape than box now.  So, lots of shopping and checking in stores as we did errands over the last couple of weeks and found a couple of reasonable substitutes.  It seems that ornament boxes have become tiny little things that won’t hold ornaments — go figure.  So, today we took all the ornaments off the tree and got them packed up.  We started going branch by branch to pull the branches towards the center: you know when you separate and fluff them when you put the tree up that you just have to squeeze them all down again.  Got about 1/6th of it done.   Hopefully, tomorrow we’ll finish that bit of it and get the tree apart, wrapped, and stored.  Then it’s clean the living room and rearrange the furniture and the plants.

Meanwhile, I’m almost done with a sock … maybe another 1/2 inch and bind off. Then start the second one.  I joined the Rocking Sock Club and I’m really looking forward to the first package.  I’ve never joined a sock club before but heard a lot about this one.  I  just never remembered about it during the signup period.

I’ve found the black yarn for the bear’s face so hope to get that done tomorrow or at the very least over the next week. I’ve been finishing things lately and that’s a good thing.  Got the cowl done.  Just need to sew in the ends and block.  Should have pictures up for that soon.

Meanwhile, I’ve been reading in all the in between times to get my commitments for reviews done this month.  Trying to catch up and arrange some interviews before it gets too late, too.

Gumshoe Review published it’s first original short story this month.  We’ve already chosen the story for February.  We hope to have a new story featured each month.  This is a new venture for us and we’re still working out how to streamline the system: reading the submissions, ranking them, going over our favorites, notifying the authors whether we’re interested or not.  We’re getting better but still need to get a system that’s easy for us to deal with and make swift decisions for the sake of the authors.

Nevertheless, I still feel even though I got a lot done today that I’m still running in place rather than moving forward.

It’s a Saturday after a WSFA Meeting at a pet filled home and a long night of trying to breathe. This made me laugh. I hope it perks up your day.

Many years ago, when I was a young’un, the list of criteria for being sentient was quite short and only humans qualified. Over the years, the criteria for sentience has subtly and quietly changed as more and more animals were found to qualify. For example, some animals were found to use tools, so tool using was dropped from the list.

Star Trek: The New Generation did an episode where Data was to be returned for disassembly by an AI researcher. Picard defended Data in court to prove his sentience and rescind the order. The full text of the scene is available online.

PICARD: What is required for sentience?
MADDOX: Intelligence, self awareness, consciousness.

Picard manages to create enough of a case and create enough doubt that the judge had to find for Data. It seems to me there was a similar episode during the original Star Trek series but I’m not sure. (If anyone knows for sure let me know which episode and basic case.)

From Ask The Van: in response to question on AI sentience:

When it comes to animals, there are a number of things which scientists try to measure – here are a few examples:

(1) The ability to observe and respond to one’s environment. This requires sensory perceptions and the ability to react to those perceptions. This is a pretty basic property of life, although the extent to which various creatures can do it varies widely. Most (all?) AIs already possess this ability.

(2) Intelligence. *”The ability to learn and understand, the ability to cope with a new situation” Many animals, including primates, pigs, and dolphins, have been shown to have very high intelligence. Some AI’s have also been shown to possess a high level of intelligence.

(3) Sentience / Consciousness. To be *”able to feel and think”. This is a tricky one. There is some very strong evidence out there indicating that certain species of animals are capable of both emotion and rational thought, but the argument hasn’t yet reached final resolution.

(4) Self-awareness. In the animal debate (and also the AI debate, I suspect), this is a big deal. Does the animal have awareness of itself? There are a zillion different experiments out there to test this, and they all seem to rely on a different idea of what proves self-awareness. For example, some definitions require that an animal understand how its own movements affect the image in a mirror. Some depend on an animal’s ability to lie. Some even rely on the fact that carnivorous animals don’t try to eat their own flesh. In the end, this is still a very nebulous issue, and the answers aren’t clear.

As you see from the above response, animals have been found to achieve many of these criteria. I’ve never managed to get over my feeling that we, humans, are so full of ourselves and our place at the center of the universe that we’ve ignored the possibility that we may share this world with a number of other intelligent/sentient species. In doing some research for this article, I ran across the following quote from Jeremy Bentham (1748-1832) from Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation.

“Other animals, which, on account of their interests having been neglected by the insensibility of the ancient jurists, stand degraded into the class of things. … The day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated … upon the same footing as … animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. It may come one day to be recognized, that the number of legs, the villosity of the skin, or the termination of the os sacrum, are reasons equally insufficient for abandoning a sensitive being to the same fate. What else is it that should trace the insuperable line? Is it the faculty of reason, or perhaps, the faculty for discourse?…the question is not, Can they reason? nor, Can they talk? but, Can they suffer? Why should the law refuse its protection to any sensitive being?… The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes…”
Jeremy Bentham (1748 – 1832)
Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation (1789)

The quote was used in an article on Ethics and discussed our anthropocentric view of sentience.

I believe that I’d got way beyond this author’s views. I believe we are still very anthropocentric. In fact, as strict as we tune the criteria for sentience to always keep mankind on the top of the stack as the only sentient species on Earth — we have many people, humans, who don’t feel that other humans, because of skin color, sexual preference, perceived intelligence or whatever, are really sentient or, in fact, human. Whenever humans from whatever government start a war the first thing that is done is the dehumanizing of the enemy. Evidently it is much easier to kill if you don’t believe the enemy is actually “one of us”.

So, the other day when I came across this article on PhysOrg.com, “Scientists say dolphins should be treated as non-human persons” (January 6, 2010 by Lin Edwards), my first reaction was, “it’s about time.” The article abstract states:

Scientists studying dolphin behavior have suggested they could be the most intelligent creatures on Earth after humans, saying the size of their brains in relation to body size is larger than that of our closest relatives, the chimpanzees, and their behaviors suggest complex intelligence. One scientist said they should therefore be treated as “non-human persons” and granted rights as individuals.

More than about time, but since people don’t consider all people as having rights as individuals, I doubt that this will get very far. But it is a step in the right direction. As we move out into space, we need to recognize that if we were to find intelligent, sentient life out there somewhere, it won’t necessarily look like us. If we can’t accept the possibility of intelligent/sentient life other then homo sapiens on this planet, I don’t hold out much hope for a first contact situation going very well if we should find life on other planets. The odds of this happening are increasing as current research shows that the possibility that we’ve found that life once existed on Mars is increasing as more research is done on available samples.

So, while I think it’s time that we re-examine our relationship with the species that we share our planet with, I doubt very much that humanity is willing to accept the possibility of animal sentience, let alone plant intelligence, when so many can’t accept that all humans are sentient.

Never the less, I’m leaving you with the introductory song to the motion picture, The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy”. Besides being a great riff on humanities blindness to other intelligences, it’s a wonderful piece. Enjoy.

Feedback on this article is welcome but unless it is more than — great article or nice blog — it won’t be approved in the comments.

Today was sort of a loss on getting the home/house/shopping stuff done because I had a Capclave Committee Meeting scheduled this afternoon.

Nearly the entire committee was in attendance and those who couldn’t make it sent their reports.  It looks like we’re on track for memberships compared to previous years at this time.  This year Capclave will be capping membership at 500.  So, if you’re dithering please sign up soon. Right now the membership cost is $45.  There will be another price increase on July 1st.  So, the longer you wait the more expensive it gets.

Capclave will be from October 22 to 24th, 2010 at the Rockville Hilton.  Guests of Honor are: Connie Willis, Ann VanderMeer, and Jeff VanderMeer.  Check out our website and the Capclave blog.

We’re putting together ideas for programming. We could use your input on what panels and workshops you’d like to see at the convention. Really, let us know. Email programming with your ideas and suggestions.

If you’d like to volunteer some of your time to help out at the convention, send me email and let me know what area you’d like to work in and how many hours you’d be willing to commit. We’ll be putting a volunteer form up on the Capclave site soon but you can let me know by emailing me earlier.

Now to knit some more on my sock. Have a good evening everyone.

Today, I went to pick up my prescriptions. I’m on some maintenance medications because asthma and other things. So, I get there and find out my insurance decided to not pay for one of the inhalers. The same inhaler medication I’ve been on for almost two years. The cost with the drug coverage — $165.00 per month.

Needless to say, I didn’t pick it up. If you’ve read my open letter to congress about medical coverage, you know that my out of pocket with the, in point of fact, very good medical health insurance that I have is around 10-14K per year as it is. I can’t deal with the insurance company anymore — I get ticked off and cry so Hyperion will give them a call tomorrow and try to find out what the deal is this time. Meanwhile, I’ll have to set up an appointment with the asthma/allergy doc and see if I can be moved to something the insurance company might just, maybe help pay for (normally, I paid a $50 copay for this inhaler).

Oh, the other surprise was that all the medications that were 3rd tier just went up to $60/month. Oh, joy. Guess, I’m a shoe in for the medical tax deduction now.

Is the insurance company making medical decisions by refusing to pay for their share of my Rx? According to them, “No!”. In a near quote what they told me the last time they did this is that they are not making medical decisions because they’re not stopping me from having the medication I need, I just have to pay full price. No one is stopping me from paying for it.

Well, I got news. That is making a medical decision. The insurance company is more concerned with their profit margin than in the people they cover. And THAT, is the reason that we need a public option. Health care should not be entrusted to a for-profit company.

The sad part for the people in this country is that Congress is more interested in getting big bucks for their campaign coffers than serving the people who elected them. The current health care bill is now a useless piece of legislation that is a great windfall for insurance companies at the expense of Americans who are without health insurance. As if stands now, the new health care bill gives corporations everything they’ve asked for and the American people nothing– no public option, no expansion of Medicare, and no coverage of pre-existing conditions. It also mandates that people buy insurance which will not cover their pre-existing conditions with a fine if they don’t get insurance. So, thank you Congress for requiring people buy insurance that won’t cover any of the medical problems that they have and then punish them if they don’t buy this useless insurance in order to afford what health care they can with what little money they have on the health problems they do have.

I’m upset from my experience today. Yes, I am. But I’m even more upset knowing that other people are having an even rougher time that I do. I have health insurance and I still have problems getting medications and care. Nothing that Congress is doing is going to make it any easier for me and it certainly isn’t going help Americans who currently don’t have health insurance or who can barely afford the coverage that they have.

Sherlock Holmes is and was a fictional character created by Sir. Arthur Conan Doyle. According to wikipedia, Sherlock Holmes first appeared in print in 1887.

During the Christmas holidays, a new Sherlock Holmes film was released in theaters. Directed by Guy Ritchie, Sherlock Holmes was played by Robert Downey Jr., while Jude Law and Rachel McAdams played Dr. Watson and Irene Adler. Many fans of Sherlock Holmes were upset by the film because this is not the Holmes they were expecting. The plot is a bit wild but within the acceptable canon. Holmes however is more scruffy and common than most people expected.

Personally, I thought that he was closer to the Holmes I thought he was when I first read the books as a child. This Holmes could disguise himself as a laborer and get away with it. He could mingle on all class levels and blend in. That, however, doesn’t mean that he couldn’t dress up and appear in the highest levels of British society and also fit in smoothly since, as I mentioned, he could blend in on all levels. Holmes adapts and the only thing he can’t stand is boredom and ignorance. So, take a chance and see the movie, whether you like it or not will depend on your inner vision of Sherlock Holmes.

The second major complaint that I heard/read was that there was paranormal and magical aspects in a Sherlock Holmes film. Tsk. Tsk. In point of fact, Sherlock Holmes doesn’t believe in magic or the paranormal. He attacks the problem in his own way looking for clues and facts. While the movie appears to have real magic occurring, never once does Holmes say it is so. By the end of the movie you’ll know what Holmes does, and that changes how you view what you’ve already seen. Again, strictly canon in the Holmesian universe.

10 Facts about Sherlock Holmes on FactsMonk.

For my own Holmes adventure, Hyperion and I were traveling from hither and yon and managed, as we usually do, to get lost. However, we found Gillette Castle State Park. It’s in East Haddam, Connecticut and was the home of William Gillette who played Sherlock Holmes on Broadway and for years it was his image that was used as that of Holmes in magazines, books, and other print media. Gillette was a bit of an inventor and the castle has some interesting features. The one that’s relevant to this post is that he had a room set up to look like 221B Baker Street including the VR in the wall made by bullet holes. If you’re ever in the area in Connecticut, check it out. It’s high on a bluff overlooking the river. There’s a ferry that makes trips across the river and the view of the castle from the ferry is spectacular. (Unfortunately, I couldn’t find our photos of the visit so here’s one from the Gillette State Park site.)

I loved the books when I was in my early teens. I liked them even more when I was in my twenties and could appreciate the convoluted plots and Holmes’ dry wit. But I guess what I continue to like is the reliance on facts before hypothesis that Holmes insisted on. My favorite line is the one, “Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.” This is even more astounding when you realize that Doyle fell for just about every scam that was about in his day — he was a stanch supporters of the girls who claimed to have fairies in the bottom of their garden, for example. But Doyle managed to have Holmes believe only in facts, science, and what he himself could deduce from clues.

In recent years, many authors have been writing stories using the Holmes character. I’ve reviewed several. Most remain true to the character as it was developed by Doyle. Even if they bring in paranormal appearing events, they manage to have Holmes stand true to his motto: “Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.”

Celebrate the birthday of Sherlock Homes. Read a mystery.